Our next chance at moisture in Michigan comes together with a minor trough boundary sagging southeastward through the UP and northern parts of Lower Michigan next Thursday midday and afternoon. However, southern Lower Michigan all of Indiana staying sunny, warm and dry through all of Thursday. The boundary makes it into northern Indiana for early Friday morning  with hit and miss scattered showers for the northern third. Then Friday midday and afternoon we see pop up scattered showers in central and southern Indiana. All in, all done we can see .25”-.75” of moisture in Michigan with close to 60% coverage and a tenth to half an inch in Indiana with a similar 60% coverage. Behind that minor system, we turn out partly sunny for Friday late afternoon and for Saturday the 6^th. Then we go mostly sunny, warm and dry Sunday the 7th and Monday the 8th.

The aforementioned high pressure dome is gone by the time we start the week of the 8th. Behind it comes a fairly significant storm complex bringing rain for Tuesday the 9th and into early Wednesday the 10th. We can pencil in anywhere from .25”-.75” through those two days before drying down later Thursday afternoon and evening. We do have the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorm action late Thursday as this system ends in Michigan, but that severe threat could fluctuate greatly in timing and location by the time we get there. In any case behind that final front, we do see low pressure slowly exiting the Great Lakes region to the east and north. This likely creates plenty of cloud cover, and some wrap around moisture that circulates back around over Michigan primarily, but even down into Indiana. With that setup we likely cant rule out a few hundreds to a few tenths lingering through the 12th and maybe into early the 13th. However, a quick look back west shows another weather system getting ready to move out of the Great Plains for the weekend of the 13th and 14th, that likely throws moisture our way for the following week. The map at right shows cumulative precipitation potential the 9^th through the 12^th.

Extended Period:

Closer to normal precipitation settling in as we move through the extended 11 to 16 day forecast window, particularly as we get toward the end of that the week of the 15th does look to have at least one frontal boundary coming through. 1/4 to 3/4 of an inch of precipitation likely coverage right now. Still up in the air, but temperatures are settling into a normal or slightly above normal range through the extended window.

Weeks 3 & 4:

Week three features above normal precipitation, and week four goes back to near normal. Both weeks 3 and 4 are near to a bit below normal on temps.

 Week 3 Precipitation:

Week 3 Temperature:

Week 4 Precipitation:

Week 4 Temperature:

"Supermodel Janice Dickinson is showing off her results just three months after a major facial rejuvenation with Beverly Hills facial plastic surgeon Dr. Harrison Lee," Lee wrote in an Instagram caption unveiling the model’s transformation.

The former runway star, 71, appeared makeup-free in before-and-after videos and photos shared by Lee, who noted that "absolutely no filters or photo editing were used" in the reveal.

CHRISTIE BRINKLEY, 71, ADMITS WHICH COSMETIC PROCEDURES SHE’S ‘DABBLED WITH’

"Supermodel and beautiful Janice Dickinson is currently 3 months postop following a major facial rejuvenation," Lee wrote in part. "She is beyond ecstatic with the results! The postop photos show her without makeup and then transitioning to full glam."

Dickinson’s latest cosmetic transformation comes after the "America’s Next Top Model" alum reportedly suffered a facial injury while filming "I’m a Celebrity... South Africa" in 2022. According to InStyle, Dickinson later sued ITV over what she described as "permanent traumatic scarring" from the incident.

The model’s latest procedures include an endoscopic brow and mid-face lift, a deep-plane facelift, a dual-plane neck lift, a subnasal lip lift and extensive fat transfer designed to restore volume and create a more youthful appearance. Lee also performed a full-face CO2 laser resurfacing treatment to improve skin texture and tone.

RICKI LAKE ADMITS SHE ‘IMPULSIVELY’ GOT FACELIFT WITHOUT RESEARCH AFTER 40-POUND WEIGHT LOSS

Dr. Lee is a triple board-certified surgeon known for performing procedures on high-profile clients, including Caitlyn Jenner and Dylan Mulvaney.

In the social media carousel, Dickinson showcased her refreshed appearance both barefaced and fully glammed up with bright pink lipstick, dramatic eyeliner and sharply arched brows.

Fans quickly flooded the comment section with reactions to Dickinson’s transformation.

"Wow !!! Great job !!! I didn't know it was possible to fix that !" one user wrote.

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"...Supermodel vibes!!! She looks so beautiful!!!!" another commenter added.

Others were more skeptical of the dramatic makeover, with one person writing, "That won't age well."

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The modeling icon has long been candid about her experience with cosmetic procedures.

During a 2024 appearance on Kaitlyn Bristowe’s "Off The Vine" podcast, Dickinson revealed she underwent her first procedure at age 32 while dating actor Sylvester Stallone.

"What point in your career were you like, ‘I’m gonna start getting surgery done?’" Bristowe asked the model during the interview.

"Oh, gosh. I was dating Sylvester Stallone, and I was 32," Dickinson replied. "I noticed I started getting jowls..."

To address the issue, Dickinson said she opted for a "mini facelift" and doesn’t regret any surgeries she’s had done.

Indiana State Police say their preliminary investigation shows that 59-year-old Bradley Galenski was driving southbound in the northbound lanes of US 41 when he collided head on with a semi driven by 71-year-old Clarence Mackey of Alapaha, Georgia.

Police say Mackey saw the truck coming and attempted an evasive driving maneuver but was unable to avoid a collision.

Galenski was ejected from his vehicle which traveled off the roadway and rolled onto its side before coming to a stop.

He was pronounced dead at the scene.

Drug and alcohol testing are pending.

On Thursday, McBride shared a lengthy post on her social media accounts, announcing the news. "I will not be performing at the Great American State Fair on June 25th," she wrote.

The "Independence Day" singer went on to write that she was "presented with an opportunity to perform at a nonpartisan event" and the upcoming show "turned out to be misleading."

She emphasized thoroughly throughout her statement that she was informed it was a "nonpartisan event" that would be celebrating "all 50 states."

TRUMP-BACKED MEGA EVENT TO BRING ALL 50 STATES TO DC IN WORLD’S FAIR-STYLE BASH

McBride believed the Great American State Fair was "a bigger version" of other state fairs she's performed at over the years, but "things started changing."

"I’ve spent my entire career singing songs about real people with real issues. I’ve been blessed with the opportunity to be a voice for those who have felt like they didn’t have one," McBride added.

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"It greatly upsets me that any fan who has been moved by my music may now feel like I’m abandoning the meaning behind those songs."

Social media lit up after McBride shared her statement.

"Coward. It's the 250th birthday of America it's not political. Never cave to the woke mob. You just did," one user wrote on X.

Another added, "I admired you. I thought better of you. You bowed down to pressure when pushback came. Sad. Yuck."

"Wow. So you got pushback from people who were NEVER your fans to begin with, and you caved. You aren’t brave. You aren’t standing up for anyone. You’re a coward. Shame on you @martinamcbride," a third wrote.

A few social media users pointed out that in 2009, McBride performed at the White House during a special concert honoring Stevie Wonder. The event was hosted by then President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama.

"Martina McBride says she WON’T perform for America’s 250th celebration because Trump is President and she doesn’t want to be ‘political.’ Meanwhile, Here she is performing at the White House for President Obama. Another hypocritical fraud," the user wrote on X, including a video of her 2009 performance. 

Another user wrote, "@martinamcbride is a has-been, who became famous and wealthy because of the people in the USA. She performed for Obama in 2009 and can’t find it in herself to be honest that she’s cancelled for the June event because she doesn’t support or like the current @potus."

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Bret Michaels, Young MC, Morris Day and the Time, and C+C Music Factory have also pulled out of the Great American State Fair. Rappers Flo Rida and Vanilla Ice are still scheduled to perform.

The Great American State Fair is a large-scale national celebration being held on the National Mall in Washington, D.C., stretching from the U.S. Capitol to the Washington Monument. The event runs from June 25 through July 10, 2026, as part of the nation’s 250th anniversary celebration (America 250).

McBride is a Grammy-nominated country music singer, songwriter, and author. With a career spanning more than three decades, she has earned numerous awards and chart-topping hits, including "Independence Day," "A Broken Wing," and "This One's for the Girls." Widely recognized as one of country music's most influential female artists, McBride is celebrated for her inspiring music and advocacy for women and families.

A State Department official told Fox News Digital that, "As we have continuously stated, the only path to lasting peace is through direct negotiations between the two sovereign governments."

The discussions mark a shift from diplomatic negotiations into direct military coordination, with talks expected to focus on ceasefire enforcement, border stability, Israeli withdrawal from parts of southern Lebanon and the role of the Lebanese Armed Forces in containing Hezbollah.

ISRAEL MOVES TOWARDS CEASEFIRE DEAL WITH HEZBOLLAH: REPORTS

The talks come weeks after a U.S.-brokered ceasefire first reached during the broader regional conflict tied to the U.S.–Iran war. While large-scale fighting has eased, Israeli forces continue operating inside parts of southern Lebanon and Hezbollah maintains drone and rocket capabilities, keeping tensions high along the border.

The ceasefire was extended on May 15 for another 45 days, creating pressure on both sides to show progress before the current arrangement expires.

But analysts say the central question overshadowing the talks is whether Lebanon can realistically curb Hezbollah’s military power without risking internal collapse.

"This will be the first meeting between representatives of the militaries since the start of the negotiation process between Lebanon and Israel," Ahmed Sharawi, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, told Fox News Digital.

Representing Lebanon in the talks is Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) commander Gen. Rodolphe Haykal, who previously served as commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces in southern Lebanon, an area where Hezbollah maintains a strong presence. Hezbollah is the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist organization designated by the United States as a foreign terrorist organization. 

"What we should expect is talks regarding de-confliction and what the expectations are for the LAF in terms of the broader disarmament plan against Hezbollah’s weapons," he said.

Sharawi said the chances of a broader breakthrough remain limited so long as Hezbollah remains heavily armed and politically entrenched inside Lebanon.

"The biggest obstacle here is that the Lebanese state is yet to present a feasible plan to disarm Hezbollah," he said.

LAWMAKERS QUESTION WHETHER US MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO CAPITALIZE ON HEZBOLLAH'S WEAKENED STATE

He pointed to the terms of the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, which placed responsibility for disarming Hezbollah on the Lebanese state.

"We are yet to see the confiscation of one single bullet from Hezbollah," Sharawi said.

He also warned that Hezbollah’s deep support among Lebanon’s Shiite population complicates any attempt to move toward normalization with Israel.

"There’s a fear of a civil war," he said. "That also accounts for the Lebanese state’s unwillingness to disarm Hezbollah."

The talks opened as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled Israel intends to maintain military pressure on Hezbollah despite the negotiations.

Sharawi argued the Trump administration nevertheless appears determined to push the process forward as part of a broader effort to weaken Iranian influence in the region.

"The reason behind these meetings is that President Trump is really trying to push for a peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon," he said. "Peace between these two countries could really undermine Hezbollah and its influence in Lebanon."

WALTZ SAYS TRUMP HAS CREATED 'BEST CHANCE IN OUR LIFETIME' TO BREAK HEZBOLLAH’S GRIP ON LEBANON

Israeli analysts similarly described the talks less as a breakthrough and more as a strategic signal aimed at Hezbollah.

"The war between us and Hezbollah is continuing," Yossi Kuperwasser, head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and former head of the Research Division of Israeli Military Intelligence, told Fox News Digital.

"There is no doubt the Lebanese government does not have a monopoly on the use of force in Lebanon," he said.

‘OVERBLOWN’ REPORTS ON ISRAEL–LEBANON NORMALIZATION RISK HINDERING BORDER TALKS BEFORE THEY BEGIN: OFFICIAL

Kuperwasser said expectations for an immediate diplomatic breakthrough should remain low, but argued the talks themselves send an important political message.

"The purpose of these talks is first and foremost to send a message to Hezbollah and also to the Americans," he said. "Both sides are prepared to sit together against Hezbollah and signal that they are moving, even if slowly, toward normalization between Israel and Lebanon."

He argued Hezbollah has been weakened politically and militarily by the ongoing conflict and by growing frustration among Lebanese civilians displaced by the fighting.

"For years Hezbollah portrayed itself as the defender of Lebanon," Kuperwasser said. "Now many Lebanese see Hezbollah as responsible for the suffering Lebanon is experiencing."

Kuperwasser added that while Israel supports strengthening the Lebanese army, Beirut fears direct confrontation with Hezbollah could ignite another civil war.

"The Lebanese government fears military action against Hezbollah would lead to civil war," he said. "That fear shapes everything."

The talks also come amid mounting domestic pressure inside Israel, where critics of Netanyahu have accused the government of pursuing containment rather than decisive military victory against Hezbollah.

Speaking Friday during a visit to Israel’s northern front, Netanyahu said Israeli forces had crossed the Litani River and were operating across multiple parts of Lebanon. 

"We are operating in Beirut, in the Bekaa Valley, across the entire front and striking Hezbollah hard," Netanyahu said.

Meanwhile, Lebanon’s leadership is attempting to balance growing American pressure with fears of internal instability and renewed sectarian conflict.

Following Friday's meeting, the Pentagon issued a statement: "Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby hosted military delegations from the State of Israel and the Republic of Lebanon to launch the security track supporting the ongoing talks between the two nations.

"The delegations engaged in productive, military-to-military talks focused on building practical frameworks for regional security and stability. The progress and tangible outcomes from these discussions will directly inform the Department of State-led political track, which is scheduled to reconvene next week.

"The Department of War deeply values its strategic partnerships with both the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). The Department supports Lebanon's sovereignty and territorial integrity, free of armed non-state actors, and welcomes the commitment of both militaries to these historic efforts. These are essential steps toward realizing President Trump's vision for a lasting peace in the Middle East.

"The United States anticipates reconvening soon to continue the security track."

Neither the Israeli Embassy in Washington nor the Lebanese Embassy in Washington immediately responded to requests for comment. 

In a recent Instagram dump, the 55-year-old actress posted a series of photos from her serene weekend, including some of her reading, lounging on the beach and walking around her neighborhood.

"Could get used to this. ," she captioned the post.

One of the photos showed the actress smiling for the camera as she posed for a selfie at the beach in a red bikini, which she paired with a large straw sunhat and a pair of sunglasses.

'LANDMAN' STAR ALI LARTER STUNS IN RED BIKINI SELFIE FROM HER TRAILER

She later shared another photo of her day spent tanning at the beach, which featured a peek at her red bikini bottoms and her toned legs, with the ocean on her left and the sky above.

"What a beautiful lady wow ," one fan wrote in the comments section. Another added, "You have super cute smile sweet Charisma."

"Awwww that smile always brightens the darkest days ," a third fan wrote.

Carpenter rose to fame playing Cordelia Chase, an original member of the Scooby Gang, on "Buffy the Vampire Slayer," which she starred in for the show's first three seasons, alongside Sarah Michelle Gellar, Alyson Hannigan and Nicholas Brendon.

She left "Buffy" to join the cast of its spin-off show, "Angel," which starred another "Buffy" alum, David Boreanez, who played the new show's titular character.

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When news broke out that a "Buffy the Vampire Slayer" reboot was in the works at Hulu, Carpenter told IGN in July 2025 that "it would be a dream to be included," but was unsure how it would work considering her character died in season five of "Angel."

"These writers are wildly creative, I'm sure they could figure it out if they wanted to. If it was a fan thing, where if there was a thirst or craving or need for Cordelia to be there, I'm sure with one hell of a creative team they have leading the writers room, it would be possible," she said.

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"[Cordelia] was built up so big, she'd grown so much, she'd had this remarkable journey, and for her to go out the way that she did just felt so unjust," she added.

Ultimately, the reboot, titled "Buffy: New Sunnydale," which Gellar was working on with Academy Award-winning director, Chloé Zhao, was scrapped by Hulu.

"We had an executive on our show who was not only not a fan of the original, but was proud to constantly remind us that he had never seen the entirety of the series and how it wasn't for him," Gellar told People in March.

"That's very hard when you're taking a property that is as beloved as 'Buffy,' not just to the world, but to me and Chloé. So that tells you the uphill battle that we had been fighting since day one, when your executive is literally proud to tell you that he didn't watch it."

The Indiana Corn Growers Association and Indiana Soybean Alliance will host the Livestock Summit on June 23rd, bringing together leaders from across Indiana’s livestock and grain sectors to discuss the future of animal agriculture.

Summit organizer Emily McNiff says, “The purpose of it is to bring together the crop and livestock sectors to talk about opportunities, challenges, innovation. Because when our livestock producers succeed, our grain farmers succeed. And we’re just so interconnected with our various priorities. And we wanted an opportunity to bring all of those different sectors together.”

Industry leaders, producers, and agribusiness professionals are expected to discuss challenges facing animal agriculture, including market volatility, production efficiency, sustainability, and evolving consumer demands. The summit will also showcase emerging technologies and strategies aimed at helping both livestock and grain producers remain competitive.

McNiff adds, “We’re bringing together feed partners. We’re bringing together livestock farmers, suppliers, and maybe just a stronger understanding of how we can all collaborate and work together to just continue to make the Indiana farmers profitable.”

The Livestock Summit will take place June 23rd as Indiana agriculture leaders continue working to position the state’s livestock and grain industries for long-term success.

For more information log on to incornandsoy.org

The report, by the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF), states "violence by Fulani militants caused the highest number of deaths among all religious communities in Nigeria over the last year, as compared to attacks by organized insurgent groups and criminal gangs."

The Fulanis, so-called herders of livestock, have, according to the USCIRF report, "targeted Christian (farming) communities in the Middle Belt and, increasingly, the South, burning homes and churches as well as kidnapping, raping, and murdering."

CHRISTIANS TARGETED IN SYSTEMATIC KIDNAPPING CAMPAIGN IN NIGERIA BY JIHADI HERDSMEN, EXPERTS SAY

But a former counterterrorism expert at the State Department told Fox News Digital that the kind of strikes the U.S., working with Nigerian government forces, have recently carried out in Nigeria’s North against Islamist terrorist organizations such as Boko Haram and Islamic State, wouldn’t work against the Fulanis in the predominantly Christian central areas of the country.

Sterling Tilley, former acting director within the Bureau of Counterterrorism, who has worked in Nigeria for the State Department, said that the U.S. "militarily dealing with the farmer-herder conflict is not advisable because it is likely to bring more instability in the country." Tilley, now director of the Thomas R. Pickering Graduate Foreign Affairs Fellowship at Howard University, added, "There are some steps that can be taken to quell the violence, but there must be Nigerian political will to do so."

This week, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth commented on the recent strikes ordered by President Donald Trump on Nigeria, saying, "Maybe a year ago, [the president] heard the call of Nigerian Christians who were being targeted and killed by ISIS. And he said, 'Pete, I want the War Department to focus on ensuring that we do everything we can to protect those Christians.'"

NIGERIA NAMED EPICENTER OF GLOBAL KILLINGS OF CHRISTIANS OVER FAITH IN 2025, REPORT SAYS

Christians make up approximately 48% of Nigeria’s population. Fulani militants, the USCIRF report stated, "have often carried out operations during Christian holidays such as Christmas or Easter to further maximize the psychological impact, terrifying those communities from gathering to celebrate or worship. During attacks, assailants sometimes utter slogans with religious connotations, such as "Allahu Akbar" (Arabic for "God is great"). 

But, according to the report, Muslims are being attacked too. "Fulani assailants have not spared Muslims, raiding herders’ cattle and violently attacking non-Fulani Muslim communities," the report added.

"Violence at the hands of militants from the Fulani tribe far outnumbers violence from all other militant groups such as Boko Haram or ISWAP (Islamic State West African Province)," Henrietta Blyth, CEO of Open Doors UK & Ireland, an organization that highlights the persecution of Christians, told Fox News Digital.  

While her organization was not part of the report, she said, "My heart has been broken as I have heard stories from women and men who have seen their beloved family members butchered in front of them or carried off into a life of slavery." 

AFRICAN UNION CHIEF DENIES GENOCIDE CLAIMS AGAINST CHRISTIANS AS CRUZ WARNS NIGERIAN OFFICIALS

Blyth added: "The situation is complicated, and as the report concludes, it is too simplistic to say all perpetrators are religiously motivated. What is undisputable is that Christians are highly vulnerable and often the victims, paying the price in blood. They desperately need protection and, for hundreds of thousands driven from their homes, the chance to heal and rebuild their lives."

The USCIRF report also stated, "Criticism of responses to Fulani militant violence from federal and state authorities has often described their responses as unsatisfactory at best and complicit at worst."

Tilley told Fox News Digital that elections are to be held in Nigeria next year, and "the Fulani do have considerable political influence as a voting bloc. Thus, the Nigerian government seems reluctant to take actions necessary to quell the violence for fear that they could lose their base of support in the North and Middle Belt."

Fox News Digital reached out to the Nigerian government for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Karazsia was chosen because of her consistent impact on students, her professionalism in mentoring new teachers, and the respect she has earned from colleagues, administrators, families, and the broader school community.

The recognition honors educators who demonstrate exceptional service, leadership, and commitment in Indiana’s rural schools.

Karazsia will move on to represent Indiana in the National Rural Education Association’s Rural Teacher of the Year Competition.

The winner of that competition will be announced in October at the National Rural Education Association Conference in San Antonio, Texas, October 19-21.

For generations, corn farmers across the American Midwest have wrestled with a deceptively simple question: How much nitrogen fertilizer is enough?

Apply too little, and yields can suffer, threatening already thin profit margins. Apply too much, and excess nitrogen can wash into waterways, seep into groundwater or escape into the atmosphere as greenhouse gases — contributing to environmental problems that stretch far beyond the farm.

Now, a new study led by researchers at Purdue University suggests that farmers may be able to reduce nitrogen applications more than previously believed without significantly hurting production, potentially creating economic and environmental benefits on a massive scale.

The study, published this week in the journal Nature Communications, examined corn production data from eight major Corn Belt states and concluded that modest reductions in nitrogen fertilizer use could improve air and water quality while saving farmers money on one of their most expensive crop inputs.

“You can call it a triple win,” said Ignacio Ciampitti, a Purdue University agronomy professor who co-led the research. “You can optimize agronomy. You can increase profits because you are saving on fertilizer. And you can reduce your environmental footprint.”

Nitrogen is one of the most essential nutrients in modern corn production. Corn plants require large amounts of it to build proteins, chlorophyll and the cellular structures that drive growth and grain development. Without adequate nitrogen, corn plants become stunted, pale and significantly less productive.

The nutrient has become central to the rise of modern agriculture and the extraordinary increases in crop yields that have helped feed a growing global population over the last century. In the United States — the world’s largest corn producer — farmers rely heavily on synthetic nitrogen fertilizers manufactured through the energy-intensive Haber-Bosch process, which converts atmospheric nitrogen into ammonia using natural gas.

But the system comes with trade-offs.

Nitrogen that is not absorbed by crops can move into rivers and streams, contributing to water pollution and hypoxic “dead zones” such as the one that forms annually in the Gulf of Mexico. Some nitrogen also escapes into the atmosphere as nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas nearly 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide over a 100-year period.

The Purdue-led study found that uncertainties surrounding nitrogen recommendations may themselves be driving excessive fertilizer use. Researchers analyzed data from field trials conducted between 2014 and 2016 across Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota and Wisconsin through a public-private research partnership focused on corn yield response to fertilizer application.

Their analysis estimated that reducing nitrogen use by 12 percent to 16 percent could generate between $230 million and $350 million annually in environmental and social benefits through improved air and water quality.

Researchers said the challenge is not simply determining the “correct” amount of nitrogen. The problem is that nitrogen behavior in farm fields changes constantly depending on weather, soil conditions, crop rotations and biological activity.

“It’s never constant. It’s a very complex co-regulation,” said Francisco Palmero, a former Purdue postdoctoral researcher and co-author of the study who is now on the faculty at Universidad Católica de Córdoba in Argentina.

Heavy rainfall can wash nitrogen out of fields before crops absorb it. Drought conditions can reduce uptake. Soil organic matter, cover crops and even management practices from previous seasons can alter how much nitrogen becomes available to plants in any given year.

“The nitrogen goal posts are constantly moving,” Palmero said.

That uncertainty has historically encouraged many farmers to err on the side of applying more fertilizer than crops may ultimately need. For growers, the financial risks associated with lower yields often outweigh concerns about environmental losses.

Corn farming is an extraordinarily high-stakes business in which profit margins can hinge on a handful of bushels per acre. In recent years, fertilizer prices have also become increasingly volatile, driven in part by fluctuations in global natural gas markets and geopolitical disruptions affecting fertilizer supplies.

“No one has been looking at how much wiggle room we have on fertilizer advice,” Ciampitti said.

The researchers argue that incorporating uncertainty into fertilizer recommendations could help farmers make more flexible decisions while reducing unnecessary applications. Their findings suggest that many producers may be able to trim fertilizer rates modestly without significantly increasing the risk of yield losses.

The study also points toward policy changes that could encourage adoption. Ciampitti and his colleagues have previously proposed market-based insurance programs and carbon-related incentives designed to help farmers offset the perceived risks of lowering fertilizer use.

“Strong policies and programs, such as carbon or insurance schemes, are needed to support farmers in this shift,” Palmero said.

The implications could be significant given the scale of American corn production. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the United States produces nearly one-third of the world’s corn supply, with the Corn Belt accounting for the overwhelming majority of domestic production.

Even relatively small reductions in fertilizer use across millions of acres could substantially reduce nutrient losses into waterways and decrease emissions associated with fertilizer manufacturing and application.

Ciampitti said the study underscores that nitrogen management is no longer solely an agronomic issue confined to farms.

“We are demonstrating that this is not only an issue for farmers,” he said. “This involves everyone.”