USDA Report Day on Monday offered many surprises and bearish news for the grain markets.
The USDA’s Crop Production Report said the 2025 corn harvest was a record-high 17 billion bushels, up 14 percent from the 2024 estimate. The average yield was estimated at a record high of 186.5 bushels per acre, up 7.2 bushels from the previous year. The report led to a sharp drop in corn futures. The March corn contract on Monday fell by 24 ¼ cents to close at $4.21 ½ per bushel.
The soybean harvest totaled 4.26 billion bushels in 2025, down three percent from 2024. The average yield was estimated at a record high 53 bushels per acre, up 2.3 bushels from 2024. On Monday, the March soybean contract fell by 13 ½ cents to close at $10.49 per bushel.
Meanwhile, the USDA’s January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE) said the 2025-2026 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, higher feed and residual use, reduced food, seed, and industrial use, and greater ending stocks. With more supply and less usage, corn stocks rose by 198 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price for producers was raised ten cents to $4.10 per bushel.
The U.S. soybean supply was raised by 17 million bushels on higher beginning stocks and production. Soybean ending stocks rose 60 million bushels to 350 million, and the season-average soybean price for farmers is projected to be 30 cents lower at $10.20 per bushel.
The 2025-2026 wheat outlook this month is for slightly larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and larger ending stocks. Projected wheat ending stocks were raised by 25 million bushels to 926 million, up eight percent from the previous year. The season-average farm price dropped by a dime to $4.90 per bushel.
