Concerns over tariffs, ag trade, and farm policy are weighing on the minds of farmers, according to the latest Purdue Ag Economy Barometer survey.
“People are really focused on trade policy and the potential impact that’s going to have on their farm,” says Dr. Jim Mintert, Professor Emeritus of Agricultural Economics with Purdue University. He is also the former director for the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture.
According to the latest Purdue Ag Economy Barometer survey, farmers are a little less optimistic about the future of the ag economy than they were a month ago. However, farmers are still far more optimistic now that they have been in several years—especially since the election last November.
But, Mintert says that farmers have mostly recently shifted their focus when it comes to their biggest concern regarding the ag economy.
“We had a period of time when people were pointing to interest rate policy as the top concern. Since the election, that’s really changed,” says Mintert. “Now, it’s all about trade policy. Over the last four months, I think we’ve averaged about 43 percent choosing trade policy as the most important policy for their farm in the next five years, so there’s really been a big change there.”
Mintert says the majority of the farmers they recently surveyed believe that tariffs could have a negative impact on their farm operations.
“Forty-three percent said tariffs will have a ‘negative’ impact. If you add the ‘very negative’ to the ‘negative’ responses, you’re at 57 percent—so clearly, a majority are worried about this,” he says.
Mintert adds that those same farmers believe USDA will likely end up having to pay out billions of dollars in farm subsidies like they did back in 2019.
“Our follow-up question was: If a trade war leads to lower prices for U.S. ag products, how likely do you think it is that farmers will receive compensation similar to 2019’s Market Facilitation Program? Roughly two-thirds—65 percent—said they think that’s either likely, which was chosen by 52 percent, or very likely chosen by 13 percent,” says Mintert.
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