Indiana corn and soybean producers are entering one of the most consequential stretches of the year for agricultural policy in Washington — with a new Farm Bill, year-round E15, and the future direction of federal farm programs all hanging in the balance.
The November 3 midterm elections dramatically changed the political landscape. Democrats won control of both the U.S. House and Senate, setting the stage for major changes in agricultural leadership and policy when the 120th Congress convenes in January.
But the election results have also intensified pressure on the outgoing Republican-controlled Congress to deliver a new Farm Bill during the upcoming Lame Duck session.
For producers already navigating elevated production costs, uncertain commodity markets, and another year without a comprehensive farm bill, the consequences of congressional inaction could extend well beyond the end of 2026.
The contrasting assessments from two prominent agricultural leaders illustrate just how uncertain the outlook has become.
Troy Bredenkamp, senior vice president of government and public affairs for the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA), believes the election could encourage Democrats to postpone major agricultural priorities until they assume control of Congress.
“Certainly, I see no reason why they wouldn’t feel emboldened to wait on a lot of the key initiatives like a farm bill and major budget reform until they’re in charge in January. They may want to do just the bare minimum,” he says.
Bredenkamp also warns that Republican leadership could struggle to assemble enough votes to advance legislation during the final weeks of the 119th Congress.
“From a House-side perspective, it could be very difficult to come up with the Republican votes, knowing that there are going to be some of those members who were defeated, may not actually come back to town after Tuesday,” says Bredenkamp.
That concern could prove particularly significant as lawmakers attempt to negotiate compromises on agriculture, nutrition programs, conservation funding, and biofuel policy before the current Congress expires.
Farm Bill negotiations reach a critical crossroads
Despite the election-driven uncertainty, Duane Simpson, president of the National Council of Farmer Cooperatives (NCFC), believes lawmakers have reached a point where abandoning the Farm Bill would be a major mistake.
“I think that we’re going to pass a farm bill,” says Simpson. “It feels to me like they’re very, very close to getting this done. You don’t get this close and then walk away and start all over with a new Congress. I think the farm bill gets done here in the next six weeks or so.”
Simpson’s optimism comes as both chambers have already made substantial progress toward a new agricultural policy package.
The House passed Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson’s Farm Bill in April by a 224-200 vote, marking the first time a comprehensive farm bill had cleared the House floor since 2018.
In September, the Senate Agriculture Committee advanced Chairman John Boozman’s Agricultural Act of 2026, commonly referred to as Farm Bill 2.0, by a 12-11 party-line vote.
The legislation, formally introduced as S. 5526, was reported out of committee and placed on the Senate legislative calendar Sept. 24. However, it has not yet received a full Senate floor vote.
The committee vote followed an earlier failed attempt in August, when Republican absences prevented the legislation from advancing.
The Senate bill would reauthorize agricultural, nutrition, conservation, rural development, and other USDA programs through 2031.
But passing the bill through the Senate remains a significant challenge.
The 60-vote hurdle
Even with Democrats projected to control the Senate beginning in January, the Farm Bill faces a formidable obstacle in the current Congress.
Under Senate rules, most major legislation must overcome a filibuster before reaching final passage. That generally requires 60 votes to invoke cloture and end debate. With Republicans holding the Senate during the Lame Duck session, Boozman and other supporters must find enough Democratic votes to reach that 60-vote threshold.
The Senate Agriculture Committee’s 12-11 vote demonstrated how sharply divided lawmakers remain over the legislation.
The most significant disagreements involve provisions related to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), conservation funding, and California’s Proposition 12, which establishes animal-welfare requirements for certain livestock products sold in the state.
Simpson believes those disputes can still be resolved.
“The first one is the one I think everyone’s most familiar with, and that deals with the SNAP benefits, where the cost share between the states and federal government, where Democrats want to see a two-year delay, Republicans have offered a one-year delay. There is some room in there to negotiate around a one-year delay. So that’s the first one,” according to Simpson.
“The second one deals with funding for EQIP and CSP conservation funding. In the One Big Beautiful Bill, there was additional money put in. That money was set there, kind of parked with the intent to spend it on other conservation programs, which is what the House did. Democrats don’t want to see that end up cut out of those two programs, and so there are some negotiations going on as to whether there’s new money that comes in or whether there’s a change in the total funding. But I think that one also can get worked out,” says Simpson.
“And then the last one is Prop 12. There’s a House measure that completely preempts that. The Senate doesn’t touch that. We have to work that out,” according to Simpson.
Those negotiations could determine whether lawmakers can produce a compromise acceptable to both chambers before the current Congress ends.
For corn and soybean producers, the stakes include more than just the traditional farm safety net. A comprehensive Farm Bill could influence crop insurance, conservation incentives, commodity programs, rural development, and agricultural trade for years to come.
The expiration of the previous farm bill extension on September 30 has already left producers operating without a new five-year agricultural policy framework.
Simpson believes lawmakers understand the urgency.
“This is more art than science, but I would say that I’m highly confident. I’m as confident as I’ve been. To be fair, I’ve been pretty pessimistic in the past, but I mean, I would say it’s 80-20. There are so many things that can go wrong that could stop it from happening. But I think if they’re going to do the remainder of the farm bill, it happens in the lame duck. I think that trying to do this with a new Congress in the last two years of a presidency, I think if they don’t do it now, just about everybody believes they’re not doing it for another two years,” says Simpson.
Michigan Senate race settled, Alaska remains uncertain
The election results have already reshaped the Senate’s agricultural policy landscape.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeated Republican Mike Rogers, helping Democrats secure control of the Senate beginning in January.
Alaska’s Senate race, however, remains unresolved.
Democrat Mary Peltola holds a narrow lead over Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, with the final outcome potentially determined through Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system.
The race could affect the size of the Democratic majority, but Democrats have already secured control of the chamber.
That shift in power will have significant consequences for agricultural legislation.
Senate Democrats will determine the committee’s leadership, legislative priorities, and the approach lawmakers take toward the next Farm Bill.
New Agriculture Committee leaders could reshape farm policy
The incoming 120th Congress will bring substantial leadership turnover to the House and Senate Agriculture Committees.
On the Senate side, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, the current ranking Democrat on the Agriculture Committee, is leaving the Senate after winning her state’s gubernatorial election.
Former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, who won a Senate seat in the midterm elections, has emerged as a leading contender to become the next chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee.
Brown previously served on the committee and brings a different perspective on agricultural policy than current Chairman John Boozman.
Boozman is expected to become the committee’s leading Republican and ranking member when Democrats take control.
The House Agriculture Committee is also facing a significant leadership transition.
Current Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson will move into the minority when Democrats take control of the House.
With current Democratic Ranking Member Angie Craig leaving Congress, Democrats must select a new leader for the committee.
Ohio Rep. Shontel Brown and California Rep. Jim Costa have emerged as leading contenders for the position.
Costa, a third-generation farmer and longtime Agriculture Committee member, announced in late October that he is seeking the Democratic leadership position.
The incoming chairman will have substantial influence over the direction of the next Farm Bill, including the balance between commodity support, conservation, nutrition programs, and other agricultural priorities.
The leadership changes could represent a major pivot in agricultural policy beginning in January.
Year-round E15 remains another major priority
The Farm Bill is not the only agricultural priority facing lawmakers during the Lame Duck session.
Year-round E15 approval remains a major issue for corn producers and the renewable fuels industry.
The Senate Agriculture Committee’s Farm Bill legislation includes provisions related to the Renewable Fuel Standard, but year-round E15 has also been a central focus of separate legislative discussions.
For Indiana corn growers, the issue represents a potential opportunity to expand domestic demand for corn-based ethanol.
However, the election results could complicate efforts to secure a legislative agreement before the end of the year.
Bredenkamp’s concerns about Republican vote availability, combined with Simpson’s confidence that lawmakers are close to reaching a Farm Bill agreement, underscore the competing pressures facing Congress.
The question now is whether lawmakers can overcome those political divisions and produce meaningful agricultural legislation before the clock runs out.
For corn and soybean producers across Indiana, the coming weeks could determine whether Washington delivers a new Farm Bill and year-round E15 — or leaves those priorities to a dramatically different Congress in 2027.
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