An overwhelming 80% of U.S. corn and soybean producers admit they are concerned or very concerned about the relative competitiveness of American soybean production when pitted against South American powerhouse Brazil.
That stark finding, released in the September 2026 Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer survey, signals a growing anxiety across the Grain Belt over global market share, shifting trade flows, and South America’s expanding agricultural footprint.
Dr. Michael Langemeier, Director of the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture, says the deep-seated concern over Brazil’s expansion is dominating conversations among producers and agribusiness leaders alike.
“Are you concerned about the relative competitiveness of U.S. soybean production compared to Brazil? And not too surprisingly, 80% were either concerned or very concerned,” Langemeier says. “We’ve been doing quite a few stories recently examining the relative profitability and productivity of Brazil and U.S. agriculture. Those stories have a lot of interest in the farm press and from farmers and agribusiness leaders, and that’s why. People are concerned about that relative competitiveness to one of our major competitors, Brazil.”
Despite those competitive headwinds, American growers remain surprisingly resilient regarding demand. Close to 40% of surveyed corn and soybean producers still expect U.S. soybean exports to increase over the next five years, compared to just 10% who foresee a decline.
“Close to 40% said that exports were going to, they expected exports to increase in terms of soybeans,” notes Langemeier. “When we ask an export question that was all agriculture products, which is part of every month’s survey for the last six years at least, that was 45%. So they’re just as optimistic about soybean exports, or close to, as they are about agriculture exports in general.”
Input Costs Squeeze Margins as Overall Sentiment Falls
The fear of being undercut on global markets comes at a time when domestic operating budgets are facing severe stress. Overall farmer sentiment fell 12 points in September to an index reading of 123, pulled down primarily by an 18-point drop in current economic conditions.
A record 52% of survey respondents identified higher input costs as their single biggest concern, with 54% pointing to high input expenses as the primary barrier preventing financial improvement on their operations.
“Diesel, number one, and then also fertilizer,” Langemeier explains. “And when we look at those costs from September ’25 to September ’26, diesel is up 80%, and fertilizer is up 12 to 15% depending on the crop you look at. These are added concerns to the already large concerns about where we were at with respect to break-even prices.”
With cash flows tightening, the Farm Capital Investment Index sank to 39, reflecting a clear pull-back in machinery and facility spending heading into 2027.
Policy Uncertainty and the Land Value Paradox
Compounding the pressure on margins and global competitiveness is a cloud of broader policy uncertainty. For the first time since Purdue introduced the question in July 2025, less than half of surveyed producers feel the country is moving in the “right direction.”
“I call that kind of the long-run policy environment, and there’s just a little skittishness—a lot of angst regarding that long-run policy environment,” Langemeier observes. “On one hand, they’re concerned about the long run from a policy standpoint, but they do think farmland values are going to be relatively strong here for the next several years.”
Indeed, the survey revealed a striking paradox: while short-term profit expectations are under siege, the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index reached an all-time record high of 168.
“There’s more than the fundamentals that matter,” says Langemeier. “Certainly when you have inflation above the Fed’s target, that’s positive for farmland. Another factor we can point out is there’s still quite a bit of interest in farmland from outside investors. And then also, I would point to the very low supply of farmland. That low supply is making farmland values higher than they would be otherwise.”
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