As the Trump administration moves to rewrite North America’s trade rules and deepen its confrontation with China, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is signaling that tariffs are no longer a temporary negotiating tactic but a permanent feature of American economic policy — a shift already reverberating across the nation’s farm belt.
Speaking Tuesday at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, Greer said the United States would continue imposing tariffs on imports from allies and rivals alike, including Mexico and Canada, as long as large trade deficits persist.
“The U.S. is going to have tariffs,” Greer said. “Even with somebody like Mexico or other countries that are in our own hemisphere, we’re going to have tariffs as long as we have a giant trade deficit.”
The comments underscored the administration’s increasingly hard-line trade posture as officials prepare to renegotiate the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement ahead of a July 1 review deadline. Greer said U.S. negotiators were already in Mexico City for bilateral talks with Mexican officials, while Canada appeared increasingly isolated from the discussions.
“Our sense is that we have, with Canada, some trade challenges,” Greer said. “Some people might think are just irritants. To us, they’re significant.”
The remarks suggest the administration is contemplating a North American trading system far different from the tariff-free framework that has largely governed continental commerce for three decades. Greer indicated that tariffs on autos, steel and other industrial goods could remain in place even under a revamped trade pact.
The uncertainty is especially acute for American agriculture, which has historically depended on export markets and integrated North American supply chains. Farm groups and economists warn that the escalating tariff battle with China — and the prospect of prolonged trade frictions with Canada and Mexico — are already exacting a steep toll.
A new study from North Dakota State University estimates that Chinese retaliatory tariffs cut U.S. agricultural exports to China by roughly $14.9 billion on an annualized basis between March 2025 and February 2026. The report found that soybeans alone accounted for nearly half the losses, with beef, cotton, tree nuts and corn also suffering sharp declines.
The study concluded that the current downturn exceeds the damage inflicted during the 2018-2019 trade war, when Chinese retaliation disrupted commodity markets during Trump’s first term. Researchers estimated the new losses are roughly 41 percent larger than those earlier declines.
China remains one of the largest foreign buyers of U.S. agricultural goods, purchasing about $24.5 billion in farm exports in 2024 before trade tensions intensified last year. By 2025, according to the study, exports had plunged to $8.4 billion — the lowest level since 2007.
The losses have been concentrated across major agricultural states, particularly in the Midwest and Great Plains. The study estimated that Indiana alone faces roughly $607 million in exposure tied to reduced exports to China, while Iowa, Illinois and California each face losses exceeding $1 billion.
Greer defended the administration’s approach as part of a broader effort to restructure global supply chains and reduce dependence on foreign manufacturing, especially from China. He said decades of U.S. policy aimed at encouraging Chinese economic reform through trade integration had largely failed.
“We’ve just come to terms with the fact that there is not going to be some giant comprehensive reform of the way the Chinese political system works,” Greer said.
He added that persuading China to abandon its export-driven model would be akin to asking the United States to dismantle one of its major political parties.
The administration is now pursuing a more transactional strategy with Beijing. Greer said the White House plans to solicit public input on which “non-strategic” Chinese imports might warrant lower tariffs while also pressing China to purchase more American goods.
Despite the sharp drop in agricultural exports, the administration argues that recent negotiations with Beijing could eventually stabilize farm trade. Earlier this month, U.S. and Chinese officials announced a new framework that includes renewed Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products and expanded access for American beef and poultry producers.
Under the agreement, China pledged to purchase at least $17 billion annually in U.S. agricultural goods through 2028, in addition to earlier soybean purchase commitments. Whether those commitments materialize, however, remains uncertain.
The Trump administration’s tariff authority also faces unresolved legal and political questions. Greer indicated Tuesday that the White House may attempt to reimpose a global 10 percent tariff after temporary duties imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act expire in July.
“When you look at that statute, it says they expire,” Greer said. “It doesn’t say when you can redo it.”
For many farmers, the stakes are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. While some lost Chinese sales have been redirected to other markets, economists say replacement demand has not fully offset the collapse in bilateral trade. And unlike manufacturers, agricultural producers often have little ability to quickly shift supply chains or wait out prolonged geopolitical disputes.
Even so, administration officials insist the long-term objective is a more self-sufficient North American economy built around regional production and stronger domestic manufacturing.
“Ultimately, at the end of the day,” Greer said, “for national security reasons, I want to have our supply chain sourced from this hemisphere.”
CLICK BELOW to watch the full conversation with U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer with the Council on Foreign Relations on Tuesday, May 26:
