As the West African country of Mali teeters on becoming the first nation on the continent to be ruled by an al Qaeda–linked terror organization, a State Department spokesperson warned American citizens to leave or not travel there.
On the situation in Mali, the spokesperson told Fox News Digital, “Do Not Travel for any reason due to crime, terrorism, kidnapping, unrest and health risks,” while cautioning, “U.S. citizens should avoid travel to Mali, and those currently in Mali should depart immediately.”
The U.S. embassy in Mali also posted on their website, “U.S. citizens should depart using commercial aviation, as overland routes to neighboring countries may not be safe for travel due to terrorist attacks along national highways.”
It also warned Americans not to try to travel outside the capital city. “The U.S. Embassy in Bamako is rarely able to provide emergency services or support to U.S. citizens outside the capital,” noting the information was still relevant as of Monday.
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A former senior military official with detailed knowledge of the situation has told Fox News Digital that the situation in Mali has made a threat to the U.S. homeland “increasingly likely.”
Islamist JNIM fighters have surrounded its capital, Bamako, preventing fuel tankers from reaching the city and setting fire to some vehicles. The Malian army has tried to break the blockade by mounting armed convoys for the trucks, but JNIM has attacked several of these.
Maj. Gen. Kenneth P. Ekman, a retired Air Force general, told Fox News Digital he believes Mali’s success at keeping JNIM at bay is important — for Washington. Ekman was a key player for the U.S. military in Mali, Niger and other Sahel countries as the Department of Defense’s West Africa Coordination Element lead for U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) until he retired earlier this year.
“The U.S. still has security interests in West Africa,” he said. “An external operations threat to the American homeland is intolerable, increasingly likely and far more difficult to detect given the dearth of remaining U.S. forces and intelligence assets in the region.”
He continued, “This threat also affects the safety and security of U.S. diplomats and their families in Bamako, Ouagadougou, Niamey (Niger) and other West African nations.”
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U.S. and French troops were asked to leave Mali a year ago by the military junta that controls the country, which brought in the Russian Wagner/Afrika Corps mercenary group instead — the Kremlin’s private army. The Russians, reportedly more interested in extracting the region’s minerals, have not, Mariam Wahba told Fox News Digital, “been very helpful.” Wahba is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).
Referring to the risk of the al Qaeda-linked group taking over Mali’s capital city, Ekman said, “Both Bamako and Ouagadougou (capital of neighboring Burkina Faso) are at risk.”
He continued, “JNIM seems to be gaining momentum and appears to have both expanded objectives and greater resolve.”
“During and after the 2024 withdrawal of American forces from Niger, the U.S. (under the Biden administration) also chose to forego keeping those forces in the region,” the former major general added. “Resultantly, the U.S. surrendered its ability to monitor and respond to the activities and growth of Sahel terrorist organizations, come to the assistance of U.S. embassies under threat, and solve crises like the October kidnapping of an American missionary.”
The missionary, a pilot, was kidnapped in Niger on Oct. 21 and has not been heard from since.
JNIM has been designated both a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) and a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) by the State Department.
“The Malian army is fighting an irregular and asymmetric enemy,” Wahba said, adding, “They are jihadists, at the end of the day, and the government is having trouble out-predicting them. If this continues, Bamako may fall in days or weeks.”
Mali’s fight with an al Qaeda terror group is on the administration’s threat radar. Last month, Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau flew to Bamako and met with the junta’s foreign minister, Abdoulaye Diop, “to discuss our shared security interests in the region.”
Caleb Weiss, senior analyst at the Bridgeway Foundation and editor at the FDD’s Long War Journal, told Fox News Digital he is worried strict Sharia Muslim law will be enforced by the terrorists in Mali, stating JNIM, “Al Qaeda’s branch in West Africa, is putting intense economic and social pressure on Bamako, likely in hopes that the military junta there will concede in some fashion.”
Weiss continued, “The regime in Bamako is absolutely overstretched, and its allies in Russia’s Wagner/Afrika Corps are proving to be ineffective.”
“JNIM is also consolidating its position in other areas of Mali, in which they are allowed to enforce Sharia for an end to a blockade, siege or violence in general. It’s possible this is what they are seeking with Bamako as well. JNIM is far less likely to accept anything but a Mali governed by its strict interpretation of Sharia law,” he said.
Ekman said things could have been different: “Whatever access and relationship other U.S. government agencies are able to develop in countries like Mali will likely fall short of what the U.S. could have achieved in redistributing its military capabilities as they exited Niger.”
