The prices that farmers are paying for fertilizer remain sky-high, but what are the thoughts for fertilizer prices in 2026?
“It’s been a tough year in 2025, and 2026 doesn’t look a lot better,” according to Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer with StoneX.
He tells Hoosier Ag Today that we’re still seeing global supply issues for phosphate.
“China is normally the world’s largest exporter of phosphate. They normally export 8-to-10 million tons. I will be thrilled if they hit 4.5 million tons this year, and unfortunately, there’s nobody else to fill that gap. The global supply and demand for phosphate is very tight, and that’s why you’re seeing the price as high as it is,” says Linville.
However, he says that farmers could see relief when it comes to urea prices in 2026.
“We’ve seen a lot more exports from China, which is a massive improvement over 2024,” he says. “Europe is still going to struggle with their production rate and that’s not expected to end anytime soon. The Middle East has found peace, and that’s hopeful that we’re not going to see war impact that production, so I feel like the nitrogen sector is in a better shape.”
Will there be any changes for potash in 2026?
“Potash is still in good shape. It’s just the logistical game. It’s gone back to being boring, old potash.”
Linville says it helps that potash is being mined just north of the U.S. in Canada.
“With potash, we are already a massive manufacturer. I’m saying this from a Canadian standpoint—they’re the biggest producer and exporter by far. We’ve already got enough Supply there, but that’s where the money has been flowing. To be able to open up some mines in the U.S., I love it for the farmers around those mines because that is going to help their pricing,” says Linville.
He adds that the problems with the pricing and availability of farm fertilizers stem from the fact that the U.S. is heavily reliant on importing the entire supply, when some of that fertilizer could be produced here domestically.
“I think the one thing we can do the most with is an extra production we’re a net importer we have some of the best natural gas supplies in the world we have some of the lowest prices of gas in the world we have some of those politically stable countries in the world and people say well it’s a dirty production we can produce it cleaner than the rest of world are Sanders are going to be higher than what other people can do so let’s produce this at home let’s build those plans here and quit being reliant on tons coming from like Russia in the Middle East and things like that.”
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