President Donald Trump’s new deal in the South Caucasus has ended a decades-long conflict and handed Washington a rare strategic foothold on Iran’s northern border, experts say.
The agreement, signed earlier this month between Armenia and Azerbaijan, grants the U.S. a 99-year lease over the Zangezur Corridor – a narrow strip of land that will serve as a critical trade and energy route to Europe, bypassing Tehran entirely. Iranian American journalist and dissident Banafsheh Zand told Fox News Digital the move is “a wonderful gain for the U.S.” that also delivers a “slap in the face” to the regime in Tehran.
The corridor has long been at the center of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which displaced tens of thousands and fueled three decades of instability. Trump’s intervention brought both sides to the table and created what observers say is a new trade and security lifeline linking the Caspian Basin to Europe, bypassing Iran entirely.
Known as the Trump Route for Peace & Prosperity (TRIPP), economically, the agreement secures Washington a direct role in overseeing the flow of Caspian hydrocarbons to Europe. The U.S. will manage rail and road infrastructure, telecom networks and energy pipelines running through the corridor, giving American companies a dominant position in regional transit for oil, gas and goods. By controlling this artery, the U.S. not only generates billions in future trade and investment but also locks Europe into alternative supply routes that reduce reliance on both Russia and Iran.
For allies, the corridor offers cheaper and safer access to Caspian energy. For Tehran, it represents lost revenue, lost leverage, and the end of its ability to act as a mandatory gatekeeper for east-west commerce.
Zand said the deal is not only historic but also a direct win for Washington. “It’s a wonderful gain for the U.S.,” she said. “American contractors will be supervising oil and gas from the Caspian Basin, routed through Zangezur and Turkey to Europe. The profit margins are great, and it all happens under NATO’s blessing.”
Zand said the potential goes even further. “Nobody’s talking about it yet, but I don’t think it’s out of the question to see U.S. bases there,” she said. “If that happens, then checkmate the Khamenei regime and Russia.”
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For Iran, the corridor represents what Zand called a nightmare scenario. Tehran has long used its geography to shape energy and trade flows. By inserting the U.S. into the region, the new deal effectively strips Iran of that leverage. Zand put it in stark terms: “Iran is shaped like a cat, a sitting cat. This corridor literally runs above the cat’s ears. It bypasses Iran, takes money away from the regime, and pushes them out into the cold.”
Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies Iran Program, said the corridor exposes how vulnerable Iran has become in the Caucasus. “Both the defeat of Armenia in the most recent war with Azerbaijan, as well as the political problems between Moscow and Yerevan today, have made it harder for the Islamic Republic to really benefit from its traditional economic and political relationship with Armenia,” he told Fox News Digital.
“They still do have ties, and the regime is an opportunistic actor as much as it is an ideological one. If there is any way to throw stones at this agreement, or extract concessions on the back end, they will try.”
At the same time, he said the strategic picture is clear. “The Islamic Republic is, in essence, carved out of this route,” he said. “This is not just a critical corridor that could bring stability to the South Caucasus and economic improvement for all countries involved-it also drives home the point that the regime has been such a poor guardian of Iran’s national interest that the Iranian state has been excluded from a major transit route just above its border.”
The timing, Zand argued, makes the impact even greater. She pointed to Iran’s weakening position since October 7, 2023, and Israel’s recent 12-day war with Tehran. “The regime was self-isolated when it couldn’t come to Hamas’s or Hezbollah’s rescue. Iraq’s Shiites are saying they don’t want to be controlled, Syria is out, and Hezbollah has been degraded. For those of us who’ve watched the regime for decades, we always knew it was a paper tiger. October 7 and the war exposed it to the world.”
The killing of senior IRGC commanders and nuclear scientists has deepened the sense of vulnerability inside Tehran. “They can huff and puff about blowing the house down, but the truth is, there’s a whole lot of fear among the regime’s leaders now,” Zand said. “Khamenei has even gone into hiding again.”
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Ben Taleblu added that Washington is now using these shifts to turn Iran’s weakness into opportunity. “Wherever the regime is weak, that invites pushback, whether militarily or economically,” he said. “The U.S. has followed Israel’s military success against the Islamic Republic with strikes of its own against nuclear facilities, and it is now following Azerbaijan’s battlefield success with a political and economic success of its own. This corridor is another example of America moving in when Tehran is most vulnerable.”
Zand, whose father was a well-known Iranian journalist and intellectual assassinated by the regime, said she views Trump’s direct involvement as the key to the corridor’s success. “Because it’s Trump, it makes all the difference,” she said. “Trump doesn’t care about not hurting people’s feelings. He responds to how people act. And with this move, he’s sitting over Iran like a vulture-ominous, watching, ready.”
For dissidents like Zand, the corridor represents more than a transport route. “We’ve prayed for this for decades,” she said. “Until the regime is gone, people inside Iran will remain too afraid to rise up again. But this corridor is a boon. It shows the regime is surrounded, and its days are numbered.”
The deal was reached with NATO backing and has already been compared by some observers to historic peace accords. Zand believes the significance lies not only in ending a 30-year conflict but also in turning the U.S. presence in the Caucasus into a permanent reality. “The regime knows the jig is up.”
