Security experts are sounding the alarm that China and the rest of the international community are closely watching how President Donald Trump interacts with Russian President Vladimir Putin after their meeting in Alaska Friday.
The White House said in the lead-up to the talks that the meeting was a “listening exercise,” and Trump confirmed he would make neither deals nor concessions when speaking with Putin.
But security experts have warned that this meeting will have consequences beyond the war in Ukraine.
“Since China acts as a consistent supporter and enabler of Russia, of course they are watching the talks regarding Ukraine very closely,” Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė told Fox News Digital during her trip to Washington, D.C., this week.
“Any concession would no doubt serve as an incentive for the PRC [People’s Republic of China] to undertake a hostile path in the Indo-Pacific as the risk of dire consequences would be perceived as significantly lower.”
Trump said he would call his European and Ukrainian counterparts immediately after the Anchorage-based talks and that he hoped the next step would be for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin to meet in person, possibly along with Trump and other European leaders.
But there also remains speculation over whether the president will look to cut his own deal with Russia, namely in the field of critical minerals, with Trump looking to counter Chinese competition.
Trump on Thursday wouldn’t answer questions about whether he is going to seek a critical minerals deal with Putin, instead telling reporters, “We’re going to see what happens with that meeting.”
But the optics of Trump cutting a business deal with Russia while Putin refuses to end his deadly ambitions in Ukraine could be seen as aiding Moscow’s war chest and could further signal to Chinese President Xi Jinping that Trump values “deals over deterrence,” one East Asian geopolitical strategy expert warned.
“Beijing will read any permissive deal as expanding latitude for gray-zone pressure on Taiwan, which could strain allied trust in perceived U.S. red lines,” Craig Singleton, China Program senior director and senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said in a statement to Fox News Digital.
“China will exploit that doubt, amplifying a ‘deals-over-deterrence’ narrative and probing coordination gaps from Tokyo and Seoul to Manila.
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“If Washington is perceived as ‘selling out’ Ukraine, Beijing will learn a simple lesson: Coercion pays and costs are containable,” Singleton added. “In that case, Beijing may step up [military] incursions around Taiwan and intensify gray-zone pressure to gauge just how much stability Washington will trade for silence.”
But there is one more element to the meetings that has security experts worried – Zelenskyy’s absence.
Though the meeting was apparently pushed by Putin, who has thus far refused to meet with Zelenskyy despite the Ukrainian president’s calls to do so, his absence when discussing a war taking place on his nation’s soil could speak volumes to China.
“From Beijing’s perspective, leaving Zelenskyy out widens the lane for a face-saving freeze that locks in Russia’s battlefield gains, an implicit nod that great powers can revise borders by force,” Singleton said. “Beijing will quietly welcome it and note that Washington entertained settlement talks without Kyiv, a precedent it will pocket for Asia.”
Ultimately, he argued, “If aggression pays in Europe, deterrence discounts in Asia.”
“For Beijing, the Alaska meeting is the message. Great powers bargaining over smaller states normalizes the world order Chinese leader Xi Jinping prefers,” Singleton added.
