Zaner Ag Hedge’s Karen Braun reported that as of July 24, U.S. soybean exporters had sold just over 3 million metric tons of soybeans for export in marketing year 2025/2026, which begins Sept. 1. That volume is a 20-year low for the date and is down 12% from last year.
New-crop sales are struggling because China has yet to buy a single cargo, and this is China’s latest start in the U.S. bean market since 2005. However, in 2005, the first Chinese purchase came during the week ending August 11.
If China sits out beyond that timeframe this year, it will be the latest they have waited to start buying since at least 1999, the extent of USDA’s online database. This would thrust the U.S.-China soybean trade flow into uncharted waters.
High-level U.S. and Chinese officials met in Stockholm last week to discuss trade, and U.S. Secretary Scott Bessent said late last week that the “makings of a deal” were there and he was optimistic about the path forward.
